Service Plays Friday 12/26/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet = 5-9 ( 2-5 SIDEs AND 3-4 TOTALs )

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2008 MOTOR CITY BOWL 6:30 PM
Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan ESPN Central Michigan (-7) Florida Atlantic (62½) The Chippewas were unable to defend the MAC title and the final two games of the season were ugly losses for Central Michigan. Central Michigan allowed 424 yards per game and surrendered nearly 31 points per game on the season. Central Michigan can score with a high powered passing offense that averages 292 yards per game but the defense took a huge step back this season. Central Michigan has played in the Motor City Bowl each of the past two seasons, losing to Purdue last season and beating the Sun Belt’s Middle Tennessee State two years ago. Florida Atlantic received its second consecutive bowl bid despite falling short of expectations this season through a tough schedule. The Owls won the New Orleans Bowl last season and Coach Schnellenberger has never lost a bowl game in his career. Statistically the Owls have been a little stronger defensively but not quite as productive on offense compared with Central Michigan. After a 1-5 start to the season where Florida Atlantic played four road games in five weeks the Owls closed the year winning five of six and the offense put up huge numbers late in the season. FAU is playing better ball heading into this game and the location edge should not be a huge advantage for Central Michigan even though the Chippewas have experience at Ford Field. FAU is a veteran team that has
proven itself in big spots before. FLORIDA ATLANTIC 38-31 RATING 2: FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+7) RATING 2: ‘OVER 62½’

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET 1-6

MOTOR CITY BOWL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (6-6) vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-4)
Friday, December 26 Night at Detroit, MI (Dome; FieldTurf)

*CENTRAL MICHIGAN 37 - Florida Atlantic 35—Central Michigan is visiting the Motor City Bowl for the third straight season, and this will be the Chippewas’ 5th game at Ford Field in just over 25 months (they covered in 2 MAC championships and 2 bowl games). Losses in the last 2 games this season (to Ball St. & E. Mich.) cost the Chips a third straight trip to the MAC title game. While we definitely respect CMU attack, led by QB Dan LeFevour (11th in the nation in total offense), the Chippewas have flaws on defense. CMU yielded 38 ppg in its last 4, and the Chip stop unit ranks 118th against the pass and 104th overall. Part of the reason the pass defense gives up so many yards is the lack of a solid pass rush; CMU ranks 98th in sacks this season. Howard Schnellenberger’s Florida Atlantic side had bowl success last season, ripping Memphis 44-27 in the New Orleans Bowl. This season’s edition had a choppy start, but QB Rusty Smith had a turnaround at midseason that propelled the Owls to a 5-1 second half. Smith threw 9 ints. and just 5 TD passes in FAU’s 1-5 start, but the lights went on and he tossed 18 TDPs and just 5 ints. in the second half of the season (5-1 SU). The Owls protect Smith well, ranking 8th in sacks allowed, thanks to a veteran OL and a fairly solid ground game led by Charles Pierre (103 ypg rushing in last 6 games). Defensively, FAU, while not statistically impressive, possesses four first-team all-Sun Belt players. Smith should trade scores with LeFevour and keep it close all night. Looks like a high-scoring affair, with two high-quality QBs against permissive defenses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

10 FLORIDA ATLANTIC over
Central Michigan
Late Score Forecast: FLA ATLANTIC 40 - C. Michigan 35
Motor City Bowl at Detroit, MI

Oddsmakers have given a bit too much respect to CMU’s offense and not enough to venerable FAU HC Howard Schnellenberger. Schnellenberger’s Owls have three 1st-team all-conference defenders, an excellent OL and a hot QB in Rusty Smith. Smith tossed 18 TDPs as the Owls went 5-1 down the stretch. Certainly CMU QB (and MACMVP) Dan LeFevour is dangerous, but FAU stars LB Frantz Joseph, DT Jervonte Jackson and DB Corey Small (all RS seniors), will be primed to contain him. Meanwhile, the Owl offense boasts a ground game as well as Smith’s aerial attack. RB Charles Pierre set school single-game and seasonal rushing records this season operating behind sr. OL Nick Paris and John Rizzo (who also protect Smith extremely well). FAU took out Memphis in last year’s New Orleans
Bowl...Chippewas are next.

TOTALS:

OVER (63) in the Florida Atlantic-Central Michigan game (Motor City Bowl, Dec. 26 in Detroit)—Two high-flying offenses; two
marginal defenses; dome conditions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE COLLEGE BOWLS
Bowls are rated 1 through 6, with 1-4 being Key Releases (1 being the highest rating). Games rated "5" are considered "best of the rest". Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

Dec. 26
Motor City Bowl (Detroit)
Central Michigan 38, Florida Atlantic 27
Rating--5
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO 5-2

MOTOR CITY BOWL
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -6.5 O/U 62.5
Friday, December 26, 8 pm ET ESPN - Detroit
Recommendation: Central Michigan

Central Michigan will make the short trip to Detroit for the third consecutive year to play in the Motor City Bowl. If recent history proves correct, the Chippewas will have plenty of success. CMU has played four games at Ford Field the past three seasons resulting in a perfect 4-0 spread record. This is a team that has been a consistent offensive juggernaut averaging at least 30 ppg in each of the past three seasons. Obviously scoring has not been an issue for CMU since Dan Lefevour took over play calling duties three seasons ago. Often referred to as the poor man’s Tim Tebow, the former MAC Player of the Year has done it again with his legs and his arm. Although he missed time with injuries, LeFevour posted a MAC best 309 yards per game of total offense yardage. On the season in impressive fashion he ran for over 550 yards, threw for over 2,500 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns.. At his disposal are two absolute matchup nightmares for the Owls secondary. First is the 6-5, 205-pound Bryan Anderson with 2,800 career receiving yards and 21 touchdown receptions. The second is speedy Antonio Brown who is cut from the same cloth as former MAC game changer Dante Love or the NFL’s Steve Smith. Where CMU was efficient offensively, FAU was sloppy. Despite returning every significant starter from a breakout campaign in 2007 the Owls offense early on resembled a high school junior varsity squad. Rusty Smith was erratic at best, the receivers dropped a ton of passes, the running game was nearly non-existent and the offensive line gave away far too many sacks. While the protection would eventually get better and the touchdown count began improving at the end of the year, the Owls reserved their best performances for their weakest opponents. Additionally they hardly looked comfortable on the road. These are not generally the traits of a team worthy of support in a hostile environment. The turnover problem remained a major issue throughout the season allowing lesser foes to stay in games and better teams to pull away. The Owls finished second to last in turnover margin in the Sun Belt with a whopping 28 giveaways. In comparison, the Chippewas gave it away just 11 times this season. Neither team passes the grade defensively as they both allow about 30 points per game so we start to look for our advantages elsewhere. The two biggest advantages have already been discussed and both belong to Central Michigan. First is their de facto home field edge here in Michigan in a venue with which they are comfortable. The second is the very real prospect of getting extra possessions in part to sloppy play and turnovers from FAU. In a back and forth game, those extra possessions
will prove the difference as CMU covers the number.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

dr bob 0-1 so far

Florida Atlantic (+6 1/2) 2-Stars at +6 or more, 3-Stars at + (-1.15 odds or better) or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

kindergartencapper hockey

49-39 NHL '08-09 +14 units(most bets 1-2 U's)


Pens under 5.5 -110 2 units
all 3 this year have gone under

Tor +145 Reg Line 1 unit

Carolina -120 1

Flor +105 Reg Line 1 unit

Det Even Reg Line 2 units



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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACE ACE / Allen Eastman

1- 4 IN BOWL GAMES

$1000.00 #216 Central Michigan (-7) over Florida Atlantic (8 p.m., Friday, Dec. 26)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PPP/Gavazzi

College Bowl

3% Florida Atlantic +7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Diamond 10* College Bowl Friday Night Smash Mouth Winner:

10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sixth Sense

1% FLORIDA ATLANTIC +6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CTO

Friday,

December 26


*NEW ORLEANS over Houston (NBA)...Payback game for New Orleans, as the Hornets suffered a 91-82 loss at Houston in first meeting. N.O. PG Chris Paul was held to just 2 of 10 shooting in that game, and the Hornets shot just 41% as a team. That will change this time around, as Paul has made 17 of his last 30 shots the past two games, and the Hornets have won 4 straight and are 7-3-1 vs. the number last 11 through Dec. 22. N.O. played on Christmas Day, while the Rockets were off, but figure Hornets to be sharper as layoffs around holidays often not a positive for NBA players.

*NEW ORLEANS 100 - Houston 86 RATING - 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package = 0-7 !!!


Motor City Bowl Friday December 26
Florida Atlantic Owls versus Central Michigan Chippewas
Line Central Michigan -7 Total 63

Central Michigan limps into the Motor City Bowl
off of two straight losses. Florida Atlantic roars into
the Motor City Bowl off of five straight wins.

Take the touchdown and run!

3* Florida Atlantic Owls +7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Insights = 2-0

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Bowl Games (1) – Games to Watch


Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan (12/26 7:30PM)

Florida Atlantic started out the season 1-5, but a huge turnaround saw the Owls win five of its final six to become bowl eligible. FAU finished the regular season with a 57-50 overtime win over Florida International to cap off the season turnaround. Wide receiver Cortez Gent caught three touchdowns in the victory from quarterback Rusty Smith. Senior tailback Charles Pierre is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and needs 63 yards to reach the 1,000 yard mark for the season. FAU's defense has been up-and-down this season, and they will need to contain Central Michigan's dual-threat quarterback Dan LeFevour.

Central Michigan was invited to a bowl game for the third-consecutive season, despite allowing more points on the season than they scored. The Chippewas are averaging 30.2 points per game on offense, but they are giving up 30.8 points per game. Quarterback Dan LeFevour is the team's leading rusher with 536 yards on the season. CMU's defense suffered down the stretch, and finished the season allowing 56 points to Eastern Michigan. They made just eight interceptions and forced only 7 fumbles on the season.

Central Michigan opened as a 6.5-point favorite at Pinnacle for the Motor City Bowl. The 8-4 Chippewas are receiving the majority of public support with 77% of spread bets and 89% of parlay bets. Despite those percentages, the line has fallen to Central Michigan -6 across the marketplace. That combination has triggered a series of Betting System plays on the Owls, including a pair of Steam Moves at CRIS (59-46, +7.6) and ABC (75-60, +8). We'll follow the positive steam, and take Florida Atlantic with the points.

Florida Atlantic +6

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

Early Soccer Card, was posted in Xmas eve thread as well.

1* Preston/Derby over 2.5 -110 (English Championship)
1* Feyenoord/NAC Breda over 3 +105 (Dutch Eredivisie)
1* Hull City/Manchester City over 2.5 -130 (English Premier League)
1* Lewes/Eastbourne over 3 +125 (English Conference)
1* QPR/Charlton over 2 -150 (English Championship)
2* Leeds/Leicester over 2.5 -117 (English League 1)
2* MK Dons/Bristol Rovers over 2.5 -140 (English League 1)
2* Adelaide/Perth Glory over 2.5 -140 (Australian A-League)
3* Central Coast Mariners/Newcastle Utd over 2.5 -120 (Australian A-League)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA 1-1

BOWL TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!

FLORIDA ATLANTIC VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Motor City)...Third straight Motor City for CMU, 1-1 SU and 2-0 vs. line in those games. Chips only 1-3-1 as chalk TY, and 0-2-1 as chalk away from Mt. Pleasant. Howard won and covered bowl LY and is 5-0 SU and. vs line in bowls with Miami, Lvl, and FAU! Tech edge-FAU, based on team and Schnellenberger bowl trends.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 2-5

MOTOR CITY BOWL

This is FAU’s 2nd bowl in as many yrs as they just started playing IA ball in ‘04 becoming the fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ‘01 when they didn’t have a football team. He is 5-0 SU & ATS in bowls, including LY’s 44-27 win over Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl. He also won a Nat’l Title w/Miami in ‘83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms going 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS being outgained 428-323 & outscored 32-14. CM is appearing in their 3rd straight Motor City Bowl, but not as the MAC Champ for the 1st time. As the MAC Titles are held at Ford Field, this will be CM’s 5th gm here in the L/3Y. CM should have a big fan edge as they have a short 2.5 hr drive & have played before over an avg of 57,000 the L/2Y including over 54,000 the last time they played a SBC member. In those 4 previous gms, CM is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. Their only loss came vs Purdue, 51-48 (+7’) in LY’s bowl, which was HC Jones 1st bowl game. In the ‘06 bowl they defeated SBC member MT, 31-14 (-8). CM played 5 bowl caliber teams going 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS & despite a 56-17 loss to UGA, they were only outscored by an avg 34-28 & outgained 437-418. These 2 teams have never met & did not face any common opp’s TY. FAU has 10 seniors among their 17 upperclassman starters compared to CM which has 9 among their 18 upperclassman. FAU came into the ssn with 18 returning starters but lost 2 prior to the opener (TE Harmon-inj & DT Mertilus-acad) before losing RT Rizzo after 8 gms (torn ACL). They started off the ssn 1-5 before winning 5 of their L/6 avg 35.6 ppg. They are led by QB Smith (6’5” 212) who was a 2x SBC POW TY (2 of L/3 gms). Smith struggled in 1st 4 gms due to inj but improved over L/8 avg 256 ypg (57%) with an 18-9 ratio while going 5-3 to become bowl-elig. FAU had 4 players with 25+ catches with 2 of them being TE’s Grant & Housler. The Owls’ run gm improved from LY’s 3.5 ypc to 4.5. RB Pierre led the team & had four 100+ yds gms. The OL avg 6’2” 280 with 2 Sr starters. They all’d 12 sks (2.9%) & opened holes for 141 ypg
(4.5). They finished with our #71 off. The D, which had just 12 sks (#112 NCAA) all’d 183 rush ypg (4.4) to rank #98 in the NCAA. The LB’s are led by Joseph who is #2 tklr in the NCAA & FAU went from having 19 int LY to 12 TY with CB Small leading with four. The Owls rank #95 in our pass eff
D (219 ypg, 63%, 21-12 ratio) & overall have our #94 ranked D all’g 29 ppg & 402 ypg. FAU is #111 (last in SBC) in net punting (31.7). They avg 19.8 on KR but give up 17.6. On PR, FAU avg 8.3 & allows 5.9 and they finished a dismal #108 in our rankings. CM ended the reg ssn with 2 straight conf losses & missed what would have been their 3rd straight MAC Champ gm after dominating the conf the previous 2 yrs (15-2 in MAC play). CM has our #33 off & is avg 30 ppg & 427 ypg. The offense is led by QB LeFevour (2nd Tm MAC) who led the MAC in ttl off (307 ypg) & is CM’s top rusher (#10 MAC). CM’s receiving corps is led by two 1st Tm MAC WR’s in Brown (#5 MAC rec ypg) and Anderson (#4). The OL avg 6’4” 293 & is led by Sr’s LT Hartline (1st Tm MAC) & RT Wojt (2nd Tm MAC). They have paved the way for 3.6 ypc but have all’d 29 sks (6.6%) despite having a mobile QB. CM has our #106 D & is all’g 31 ppg & 424 ypg but
led the MAC in rush D (139 ypg). The DL is led by 1st Tm MAC DE Zombo, who led the MAC in tfl & was #2 in sks & 3rd Tm MAC DT Murnane. The DL avg 6’3” 256 & accounted for 28 of their conf leading 31 sks but did allow 4.2 ypc. The LB corps is led by 1st Tm MAC MLB Bellore, who was the
MAC’s leading tklr. Their secondary (#107) was the weak spot allowing 286 ypg (64%) & a poor 23-8 ratio. The Sp Tms are led by 2nd Tm MAC K Aguila & MAC ST’s POY Brown, who led the nation with a 20.7 PR avg. They did allow 22.0 ypr on KR & 12.3 ypr on PR’s. CM had a disappointing finish to the year as they were 8-2 when they faced off against Ball St for the MAC Title. After that loss they also dropped a shoot out to EM. FAU finished their season winning 5 of 6 but needed a 14 pt comeback to beat FIU in OT & become bowl elig. Even on Selection Sunday they were unsure if they would get a bowl bid. Rusty Smith struggled early with an inj but his offensive production improved as the Owls avg’d 39 ppg the L/4. Both offenses & defenses are very close so we’ll take the pts & the Future Hall of Fame Coach who has a Nat’l Champ under his belt.
FORECAST: FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 1
RATING: 2* FAU
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Spylock

1 unit Central Michigan
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach = 8-6 ( 3-4 SIDES AND 5-2 TOTALS )

Central Michigan should enjoy a huge crowd advantage with the short 2 ½ hour drive to Detroit while very few FAU followers are expected to make the trip. Both teams have plenty of offense and have enjoyed excellent play from the QB position. Although both teams play in minor conferences both were tested against BCS teams this season, though neither had much success. FAU lost at Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota (all Bowl teams) by a combined 106-13 score. CMU lost at Georgia and Purdue by a combined 88-42. Other than being held to just 17 points in the Georgia loss, CMU scored at least 24 points in all other games, topping 30 points in 6 games. In their 9 games against non-BCS teams FAU scored 40 points or more 4 times but was also held to 24 or less 4 times. CMU was excellent at protecting the football, losing just 11 turnovers all season, # 3 in the nation. FAU turned it over 28 times. CMU has a slight edge on offense while FAU has an almost similar slight edge on defense. CMU has the better rush defense with their weakness against the pass, an area in which FAU ranks highly. This is FAU's eighth season as a football program and they are making a second straight Bowl trip, having defeated Memphis 44-27 in last season's New Orleans Bowl. CMU is in a third straight Bowl after splitting the past two seasons, losing to Purdue last season after defeating Middle Tennessee (from FAU's Sun Belt conference). The line seems fair as CMU has faced tougher foes and enjoys a huge site edge. They've played several games in this building over the past few seasons. This is not one of the stronger plays of the Bowl season but the call is for Central Michigan to win 44-30, making

CENTRAL MICHIGAN a 2 Star Selection

OVER a 2 Star Selection